Prosperity without Growth
Overall aims
The aim of this project was to explore the relationship between economic growth, prosperity and sustainability in a world where the population is expected to exceed 9 billion in the second half of this century. It set out to consider whether prevailing models of economic growth can be compatible with living within ecological limits and if not what alternative approaches exist for achieving prosperity and a decent quality of life for all?
Context
The research and writing was undertaken by the Director in his role as Economics Commissioner on the Sustainable Development Commission (SDC). The SDC’s ‘Redefining Prosperity’ (2003-2009) project – led by Prof Jackson - challenged governments ‘fundamentally to rethink the dominance of economic growth as the driving force in the modern political economy, and to be far more rigorous in distinguishing between the kind of economic growth that is compatible with the transition to a genuinely sustainable society and the kind that absolutely isn’t’ (Jackson 2009). The Redefining Prosperity project took as its starting point the argument that the ‘tie-in between psychological and cultural trends around consumerism and the political and economic systems of the west, threatens not only the planet, but also healthy levels of wellbeing, self-esteem and social ties amongst citizens themselves’.The key questions addressed by the study revolved around: defining the meaning of prosperity; ascertaining the potential for decoupling economic growth from environmental impact; elaborating the drivers of consumption growth; exploring the implications of a non-growing economy; developing the outlines for a sustainable economy; and drawing out the policy implications of this transition. The work drew on a series of literature reviews, seminars and stakeholder discussions convened by the UK Sustainable Development Commission.
Findings
Whilst the last quarter of a century has seen a doubling of global economic output, the consequent increase in the consumption of resources means that there has been an estimated 60 per cent degradation of the planet’s eco-systems. The research argues that the predominant argument for ‘de-coupling’ economic growth and consumption from increasing resource use is weak, given the lack of evidence for actual decoupling and in particular the enormity of the challenge of decoupling growth from carbon emissions. It is estimated that remaining within the 2 degree C limit for global temperature rise at the same time as maintaining growth in developed countries and ensuring higher levels of economic growth and consumption in the developing world would require an unprecedented rate of decarbonisation of economies. The carbon intensity of the global economy would need to decline by 11 per cent every year to 2050 - a 130-fold decrease from today - and efficiency gains would need to continue all the way to the end of the century, effectively to the point where carbon is being removed from the atmosphere.
Implications
The policy demands of this analysis are significant. The project identified a series of steps that governments could take now to effect the transition to a sustainable economy. They fall into three main categories, discussed in further detail in the book:
- Establish ecological limits
- Fix the economics
- Change the social logic
Specific proposals flowed directly from the analysis in the book. But many of them sit within longer and deeper debates about sustainability, wellbeing and economic growth. And some at least of them connect closely with existing concerns of government – for example over resource scarcity, climate change targets, ecological taxation and social wellbeing.
A part of the aim of the work was to provide a coherent foundation for these policies and help strengthen the hand of government in taking them forward. The book argues that there is now a unique opportunity for government – by pursuing these steps – to demonstrate economic leadership and at the same time to champion international action on sustainability.
This process must start by developing financial and ecological prudence at home. It must also begin to redress the perverse incentives and damaging social logic that lock us into unproductive status competition. Above all, there is an urgent need to develop a resilient and sustainable macroeconomy that is no longer predicated on relentless consumption growth. The clearest message from the financial crisis of 2008 is that our current model of economic success is fundamentally flawed. For the advanced economies of the Western world, prosperity without growth is no longer a utopian dream. It is a financial and ecological necessity.
Further work is in progress to model the nature of a sustainable economy that can generate desirable levels of welfare and well-being while reducing overall growth rates significantly and cutting carbon emissions and other ecological impacts of development.
Output
Jackson, T 2009. Prosperity without Growth? The Transition to a Sustainable Economy. London, Sustainable Development Commission, London
Jackson, T 2009. Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet. London: Earthscan.
Jackson T 2011. Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet (revised paperback edition). London: Earthscan.
Jackson, T and M Pepper 2010. Consumerism as Theodicy: An Exploration of Religious and Secular Meaning Functions in Modern Society. In L. Thomas (Ed) Religion, Consumerism and Sustainability: Paradise Lost? Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave MacMillan.
Jackson, T and P Victor 2011. Productivity and work in the new economy: some theoretical reflections and empirical tests. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions 1(1): 101-108.
