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World Systems, International Relations, and the Politics of the UNFCCC

Overall aims

The main aim of the project was to explore historical reasons for the political failure of the UNFCCC process to produce a substantive global climate change strategy. The political process around COP-15 served to provide a graphic, media heightened illustration of the many weaknesses in the UNFCCC process. Drawing on Wallerstein’s idea of a ‘capitalist world system’, the research suggests that that the reproduction of this unequal core-periphery relationship in the UNFCCC invariably limits the prospect of a global low carbon future.

Context

Historical evidence suggests that outcomes to the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit – and more recently in Cancun – were not entirely unexpected; particularly given the negotiating procedures which have characterised the political evolution of the UNFCCC itself. In fact, there is a reasonable argument to suggest that COP 15 itself ultimately served to: consolidate the sharp economic, political fissures which have characterized the historical relationship between developed and developing countries; exacerbated rather than closed the tensions which have long been apparent between global environment and development aims; and strengthened the long-held emphasis on national self-interest which has so far subsumed wider, collective efforts to address climate change at the global and to deliver meaningful cuts in global carbon emissions.

Research questions and methods

The research primarily utilizes a desk-top literature review on the history of the UNFCCC from an international relations and political science perspective. The research also incorporates a series of interviews with some of the individuals who were involved in the COP-15 negotiations in order to further highlight the continuing difficulties over convergence towards a global, low carbon future. Some of the main issues considered in the research were as follows:

  • To what extent the industrialized countries have been, and would in the future be willing to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases;
  • The extent to which the major developing countries, such as China and India have been willing to go in limiting the growth of their own emissions within the context of development;
  • The ongoing political struggle over the meaning of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ and how this is to be translated into meaningful action at the level of the UNFCCC;
  • What kind of funding mechanisms would more effective in helping poorer countries to cope with the impacts of climate change;
  • The possibilities over whether agreement might be reached over a more effective ‘governance structure’ in any future treaty agreement which take place

Results

The structure of the project was broken down into four sections, which were then analysed under four headings. The first section (Was Copenhagen doomed to fail before negotiations?) explored the political discussions around COP 15 process, and considered some of the reasons why the outcome to the UNFCCC’s climate negotiations was considered to be a failed response from the world’s political leaders, particularly after the intense two-year negotiating period following the Bali Action Plan. The second section of the paper then explored the relationship between climate science and its politicization. This section considered the problematic relationship between the dominant consensus on climate change and the way in which, as the stakes have increased on the need to act, political discussion has struggled to converge around a uniform response – illustrating the divisive nature of international relations and moral arguments regarding historical divisions and the responsibility to act; changing economic relations; changing North-South power relations; and also the enduring strength of domestic politics.

The third section looked at the history and political economy of the UNFCCC. This included a chronological run through of the COP meetings since 1995, considering the work of Immanuel Wallerstein as a way of explaining how the structuring processes of the ‘capitalist world-economy’ can provide insights into significant political and economic changes that have framed the evolution of the UNFCCC process. The section also draws from a selection of interview quotes from individuals who were invited to comment on the political history of the UNFCCC, including government representatives, civil servants, NGOs, and climate scientists.

The final part of the project considered what we have learned from COP 15. Considering the aftermath of COP 15, and most recent developments at COP 16 in Cancun, the research suggested that national governments are currently incapable of the levels of cooperation which are necessary to reach effective global agreement on climate change. It was suggested that environmental issues are now such a complex issue for governance that ‘governing mechanisms have now taken on a variety of forms beyond a reliance of effective multilateral agreements, where authority is beginning to diffuse across levels of social order and types of actors. Therefore, it was suggested that other forms of governance and decision-making structures which are springing up in response to the urgency of climate change are beginning to challenge the traditional hegemony of nation-state politics.

Implications

The research suggests that outcomes to both Copenhagen – and more recently Cancun – were not entirely unexpected, given the problematic political process which has characterised the evolution of the UNFCCC. The research suggests that the policy framework of the UNFCCC has developed primarily in response to the ability of the more powerful nations to articulate their own issues of national self-interest, economic gain, and political sovereignty. Drawing on Wallerstein’s idea of a ‘capitalist world system’, it is apparent that the reproduction of this unequal core-periphery relationship in the UNFCCC invariably limits the prospect of a global low carbon future.

Outputs

Fudge, S, Y Mulugetta, M Peters and T Jackson 2011. The political economy of the UNFCCC: negotiating consensus within the capitalist world system, RESOLVE Working Paper Series 02-11. Guildford: University of Surrey.

Fudge S 2009. Reaching consensus on a global, low-carbon future: the long and winding road to Copenhagen. Presented at RESOLVE Conference: Sustainable Lives? The challenges of low-carbon living in a changing economic climate, London, 18 June 2009.

Fudge S and Y Mulugetta 2011. Regulating climate change and governing environmental risk in the EU: a Gramscian framework for analysis. RESOLVE Working Paper Series 03-11. Guildford: University of Surrey.